Comprehensive investment analysis powered by real data
$1.8M down payment for only 2.6% CoC returns!
This deal requires MASSIVE capital ($1.8M down) and generates TERRIBLE returns compared to your other opportunities. You're 7-10X better off investing elsewhere.
| Unit Type | Count | Current Rent | Market Rent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial Unit 101 | 1 | $5,500/mo | $5,500/mo |
| Commercial Unit 102 | 1 | $3,000/mo | $3,000/mo |
| Studios | 12 | $1,287-2,050/mo | $2,100/mo |
| 1-Bedroom | 1 | $2,300/mo | $2,400/mo |
| Basement Storage | 1 | $1,000/mo | $1,000/mo |
| Total | 16 | $34,571/mo | $39,500/mo |
| Property | Down Payment | Y1 CoC | Score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakey 5-Unit LV | $175k | 18.5% | 9.5/10 | ✅ Champion |
| Santa Rosa 7-Unit | $224k | 19.5% | 9.5/10 | ✅ BRRRR |
| Vallejo 11-Unit | $462k | 12.2% | 9.5/10 | ✅ Best CF |
| SF Mission 16 | $1,800k | 2.6% | 5/10 | ❌ PASS |
This deal requires 10X more capital than Oakey ($1.8M vs $175k) for 1/7th the returns (2.6% vs 18.5%). This is mathematically TERRIBLE.
| Year | Gross Income | NOI | Cash Flow | CoC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $474,000 | $360,980 | $50,659 | 2.6% |
| 2 | $488,220 | $372,228 | $61,907 | 3.1% |
| 3 | $502,867 | $383,824 | $73,503 | 3.7% |
| 5 | $533,491 | $408,090 | $97,769 | 4.9% |
| 10 | $618,462 | $475,595 | $165,274 | 8.3% |
Takes 5 YEARS to hit 4.9% CoC! Meanwhile, your other deals are generating 12-19% from Day 1.
Heart of SF, BART/Muni, high foot traffic
2 commercial units add stability
Siemens electrical, low 19.8% expense ratio
Full basement, rooftop views, 65ft frontage
Historical 4-5% annually, Prop 13 protection
$1.8M down payment - opportunity cost HUGE
7-10X worse than your other deals
Regulations, rent control, tenant protections
While other deals generate 12-19% Day 1
Could buy 10+ excellent properties instead
The opportunity cost is INSANE. You'd be locking up $1.8M for 2.6% returns when you could generate 10-70X better returns elsewhere.
San Francisco pricing makes this mathematically impossible to justify.
$1.8M down for 2.6% CoC is TERRIBLE when you have 12-19% CoC deals available requiring far less capital. Takes 5 years just to hit 4.9% returns.
Verdict: Pass completely. Use that $1.8M to buy 4-10 excellent properties instead.
View Property on LoopNet →| Unit | Current Rent | Market Rent | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unit 1 (2bed/2bath) | $1,600/mo | $1,652/mo | +$52/mo |
| Unit 2 (2bed/2bath) | $1,500/mo | $1,615/mo | +$115/mo |
| Total | $3,100/mo | $3,267/mo | +$167/mo = $2,004/year |
| Year | Gross Income | NOI | Cash Flow | CoC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $37,200 | $28,932 | $2,954 | 2.1% |
| 2 (with updates) | $40,800 | $31,920 | $5,942 | 4.3% |
| 3 | $42,024 | $32,878 | $6,900 | 4.9% |
| 5 | $44,605 | $34,886 | $8,908 | 6.4% |
Extremely efficient operations
$246/month current, $388/month at market
Roof <10 years, currently occupied
2-car garage + 2 spaces each = 8 total
$6k updates = $6,912/year upside (115% ROI)
Only $139,500 down payment
Not exciting returns initially
C-class market, limited appreciation
Slow growth trajectory
Only 2 units, limited impact
Not 25% - higher capital requirement
Risk-averse, want stability over growth
Simple, manageable, low complexity
Can manage easily, know the market
Want passive, boring cash flow
Want 10%+ returns from Day 1
This is slow and steady, not explosive
Stockton requires local knowledge
2 units won't move the needle
| Offer | Down (30%) | CoC Current | CoC Market | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $435,000 | $130,500 | 3.9% | 5.1% | 8/10 |
| $450,000 | $135,000 | 2.8% | 3.8% | 7.5/10 |
| $465,000 (asking) | $139,500 | 2.1% | 3.3% | 7/10 |
At $465k (7/10): Buy if you want stable, boring cash flow. First-time investor, local to Stockton, value low 18.1% expenses, okay with 2-4% CoC.
At $435k (8/10): STRONG BUY - 3.9% CoC current rents, 5.1% at market rents, excellent fundamentals.
Key Insight: The 18.1% expense ratio changes everything. Not exciting, but it works. Low-risk, positive cash flow, turn-key.
View Property on LoopNet →Steps to new KC Streetcar, half block from Starbucks, dozens of restaurants nearby. This is an A+ PRIME Midtown location that justifies the premium pricing!
| Units | Type | Condition | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Units | 2bed/1bath | Recently Renovated (2024-2025) | ✅ Ready |
| 2 Units | 2bed/1bath | Classic condition | Needs ~$30k total |
| All Units | New windows throughout (2025) | ✅ Updated |
Urban lifestyle seekers
Nearby hospitals
University nearby
High-income renters
Premium for A+ location
Can charge above-market rates
Appreciation + cash flow
Rentals, Airbnb, corporate housing
| Year | Gross Income | NOI | Cash Flow | CoC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $86,040 | $58,134 | $14,224 | 5.1% |
| 2 | $88,621 | $60,028 | $16,118 | 5.8% |
| 3 | $91,280 | $61,982 | $18,072 | 6.5% |
| 5 | $96,839 | $66,077 | $22,167 | 7.9% |
| 10 | $112,263 | $77,497 | $33,587 | 12.0% |
| Year | Property Value | Loan Balance | Total Equity |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $882,960 | $587,336 | $295,624 |
| 3 | $955,010 | $572,035 | $382,975 |
| 5 | $1,032,938 | $554,703 | $478,235 |
| 10 | $1,256,727 | $500,625 | $756,102 |
Walker's Paradise - rare in KC
Solid, stable, grows to 12% by Year 10
4/6 units done, new windows throughout
Rentals, Airbnb, corporate housing
$756k by Year 10
Rare for urban Midtown
$30k renovation budget required
Not exceptional vs 10%+ deals
114 years old - potential hidden issues
Not central air (common for old buildings)
$280k total cash needed
| Offer | Down (30%) | Y1 Cash Flow | Y1 CoC | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $800,000 | $240,000 | $19,090 | 8.0% | Best value |
| $820,000 | $246,000 | $17,090 | 6.9% | Good compromise |
| $849,000 (asking) | $254,700 | $14,224 | 5.1% | Worth it for location |
This is a LOCATION investment with solid fundamentals:
• 91 Walk Score (Walker's Paradise)
• $14,224 Year 1 cash flow, grows to $33,587 by Year 10
• 5.1% CoC Year 1 → 12% CoC Year 10
• Prime Midtown KC location justifies $141,500/unit pricing
• Recently renovated (4/6 units), new windows
• $636k total profit over 10 years
You're paying for LOCATION here. Not the highest CoC, but excellent long-term wealth builder with immediate cash flow.
View Property on LoopNet →| Category | Details | Cost |
|---|---|---|
| Fire Damage Remediation | Demo, structural repairs, electrical rewire | $78,000 |
| Kitchen (2 units) | Full remodel, cabinets, counters, appliances | $25,000 |
| Bathrooms (2 full) | Complete renovation | $20,000 |
| Flooring Throughout | LVP/carpet entire house | $15,000 |
| Interior/Exterior Paint | Complete paint job | $12,000 |
| Systems (HVAC, Plumbing) | Updates and repairs | $15,000 |
| Permits & Inspection | Fire damage certification | $10,000 |
| Total Rehab | $175,000 |
| Address | Beds/Bath | Sqft | Sale Date | Price | $/sqft |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28047 Dobbel Ave ⭐ | 3bed/2bath | 1,612 | 09/30/25 | $1,199,900 | $744 |
| Your Property | 4bed/2bath | 1,812 | $1,085,000 | $599 |
Dobbel Ave comp (0.51mi away) sold at $744/sqft!
Your property at $744/sqft = $1,348,128
Using conservative $599/sqft = $1,085,000
Built-in $263k safety margin! ARV could realistically be $1,200,000+
| Scenario | ARV | Profit | ROI | Likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | $1,085,000 | $153,403 | 117% | Base case |
| Realistic | $1,150,000 | $218,403 | 167% | High |
| Optimistic | $1,200,000 | $268,403 | 205% | Possible |
117% ROI, 201% annualized
Conservative $599/sqft vs $744/sqft comp
35,284 sqft - adds $100-200k value
Not structural collapse, clear scope
Desirable Bay Area neighborhood
$97/sqft reasonable for fire damage
Hidden issues possible, get thorough inspection
Foundation, systems may have issues
Fire damage certification needed, potential delays
Each extra month = $6,617 interest
| Offer | Profit | ROI | Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|
| $620,000 | $182,903 | 147% | Discount for fire damage |
| $649,950 (asking) | $153,403 | 117% | Worth it - lot size + ARV upside |
| Max $650,000 | $150k+ | 115% | Still excellent returns |
At $649,950 with $175k rehab:
• Total invested: $130,813 (cash + holding)
• Profit: $153,403 (117% ROI, 201% annualized)
• Conservative ARV with $263k safety margin
• MASSIVE 0.81 acre lot (35,284 sqft - rare!)
• Realistic 7-8 month timeline
• Hayward Hills location
Fire damage is manageable. Lot is incredible. ARV is conservative. GO FOR IT!
View Property on Zillow →